dturm

Lake County, IN

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There was a thread closed on the Sturgis rally that started with an assumption that showed a profound misunderstanding of epidemiology and the forecasting models that are a part of epidemiology.
It was stated that “only” 103 COVID cases had been documented from the Sturgis rally and this was a good thing, implying that it wasn’t a super spreader event and that the predictions are/were way off base.
The 103 scare me for a couple of reasons. Our testing is so deficient that it really only picks up a fraction of the actual positives. Some estimates are that we only find 1 in 10. Could there have been 1030 cases?
Some have said that the modeling and experts have been wrong, implying that their information and opinions are wrong and should be dismissed. Modeling is not an exact science. There are so many variables that the eventual outcome should be thought of as a prediction much like weather forecasting. The difference is that the tools we have to mitigate the eventual outcome are in our hands where we are at the mercy of the weather.
Also, with a new disease like this novel coronavirus, we learn things about the disease and how the disease is spread that help us refine the models and improve the predictive value. So, early models tend to be less accurate.
The reason that the Sturgis rally and other mass events are problematic is because this disease can go undetected and can be easily spread especially with asymptomatic individuals. This leads to an exponential spread. With COVID the estimates are that the number of cases doubles every 4-5 days without mitigation (social isolation, masks, testing, isolation and contact tracing).
Those 103 cases could go back to their homes and spread COVID to 2-3 other people (the figure most often used for this disease). Then each of those people spread it to 2-3 other people. Then those people give it to 2-3 other people, and so on. You can see quickly the 103 becomes 206, 412, 824, 1648, 3296… Within a few weeks there could be massive outbreaks in several different places.
The only way to prevent these types of events is to not have them. A way to mitigate the effects of them is to test everyone (not in our capability now) and isolate, quarantine positives and social distance and mask up to minimize chances of spread.
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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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From Minnesota MDH COVID-19 briefing
Quote: Cluster outbreaks/Sturgis:
Infections related to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota that took place earlier this month are continuing to rise. Infections related to the event now stand at 46 confirmed cases with two individuals being hospitalized, one of which is in intensive care, Ehresmann said.
MDH is also beginning to see secondary transmission from the Sturgis cases. While those cases are not included in the total of 46, they are a concern, Ehresmann said. She also said that they are expecting to see more secondary transmission from these cases as the days continue.
Some of the secondary transmission from Sturgis cases came from a wedding, according to Ehresmann. MDH is concerned about an increase in cluster cases involving weddings, parties and other gatherings that are not following social distancing or masking recommendations.
* This post was
edited 08/29/20 09:49am by BCSnob *
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RambleOnNW

Pacific Northwest

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Sturgis attendees have been reported to have visited 61% of US counties after the rally. This according to Camber Systems:
https://hosted.ap.org/thetimes-tribune/a........-rally-covid-19-infections-move-fast-far
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MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Were not most of the Sturgis activities out of doors?
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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/19/us/sturgis-south-dakota-rally-coronavirus-trnd/index.html
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RambleOnNW

Pacific Northwest

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MEXICOWANDERER wrote: Were not most of the Sturgis activities out of doors?
Reportedly outdoors during the day and in bars at night:
https://www.tmz.com/2020/08/08/sturgis-m........rcycle-rally-draws-huge-crowd-local-bar/
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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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I’ve been meaning to post this. You (as I am) can daily check the latest preprints of Covid-19 research articles here: COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv
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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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The infection rate in children of healthcare workers in the UK appears to be the same as in adults based upon the presence of antibodies. This suggests that children are no less susceptible to being infected. The study did find that 50% of the children with Covid-19 antibody titers reported have no symptoms suggesting they are less impacted by this virus. I have read that the amount of ACE2 receptor is correlated with age (source).
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in children - A prospective multicentre cohort study.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.31.20183095
Quote: This observational study is one of the largest UK studies of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence, and the only study to recruit from all regions of the UK. Following the first pandemic wave in the UK, 68/992 (6.9%) children of healthcare workers had evidence of prior infection with SARS-CoV-2. Whilst this is likely to be higher than the general population it is surprisingly similar to the seroprevalence reported by the ONS study of adults from England and Wales (6.2%) (10), and similar to international estimates (11-13). As expected there was marked geographical variation, with London reporting the highest infection rates (11.6%) and Belfast the lowest (0.9%) p<0.0001. These regional variations are consistent with published adult estimates of seroprevalence from the same time period (10).
In this study there was a near equal number of children under 10 years of age 32/68 (47%) and children over 10 years of age 36/68 (53%) developing antibodies consistent with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Age, as a categorical or continuous variable, was not a statistically significant factor in predicting the presence of antibodies, or the overall titres in children irrespective of the assay used (Figure 2). This is in contrast to several studies that have reported a lower seroprevalence in young children (under 10 years of age) and in elderly adults (over 65 years of age) following the first wave of the pandemic (11-13). This has led some authors to suggest that children are less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection (27-30). The studies on which these assumptions are based have typically reported a binary antibody outcome (positive or negative) rather than absolute titres (11-13). It is possible that the lower seroprevalence reported thus far in younger children merely reflects the effect of social distancing measures on this group. This may go some way to explain why the over 65s also demonstrated lower seroprevalence in the same studies (27-30). In our cohort, children were more likely to be exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the home due to fact that their parent(s) worked in healthcare. The findings from this study may therefore provide a greater insight into how younger children react when exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Further research is required to understand if younger children are really less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2.
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pianotuna

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This is a good read:
https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomp........ting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63
Regards, Don
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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Minks infected by humans on mink farms. Then humans were infected by minks on these farms. Mink could be an animal reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 infections. It would be very bad if agricultural animals were reservoirs for this or other viruses that are readily communicable amongst those farm animals and to humans.
Jumping back and forth: anthropozoonotic and zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 on mink farms
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.01.277152
Quote: Experimental infections in dogs (10), cats (10, 11), ferrets (10, 12), hamsters (13, 14), rhesus macaques (15), tree shrew (16), cynomolgus macaques (17), grivets (18), common marmosets (19), rabbits (20), and fruit bats (21) have shown that these species are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, and experimentally infected cats, tree shrews, hamsters and ferrets could transmit the virus. In contrast, experimental infection of pigs and several poultry species with SARS-CoV-2 proved to be unsuccessful (10, 21, 22).
Quote: Since our observation, SARS-CoV-2 infections
364 have also been described in mink farms in Denmark, Spain and the USA (57–59), and mink farming is common in other regions of the world as well, also in China where around 26 million mink pelts are produced on a yearly basis (60). The population size and the structure of mink farms is such that it is conceivable that SARS-CoV-2 – once introduced – could continue to circulate. Therefore, continued monitoring and cooperation between human and animal health services is crucial to prevent the animals serving as a reservoir for continued infection in humans.
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