qtla9111
Monterrey, Mexico
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Joined: 09/17/2003
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Of the vaccines that are in process, how will countries perform phase 3 testing? What would be the size of a phase 3 test? I am hearing numbers from all over the board but those may be based on a country's population?
In San Miguel de Allende, there is a group of ex-pats that is resisting the masks similar to the groups in the U.S. clamoring about rights and liberties.
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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Joined: 02/23/2002
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Of the phase 3 trial info I’ve seen the numbers are 30,000 to 50,000 test subjects. I think the phase 3 trials run by the nih-vrc will use 30,000 for each vaccine. For more info on this search for the name of the vaccine manufacturer (like oxford u) with the term phase 3.
Here’s the link for the info on Moderna’s phase 3 trial
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/phase-3-clinical-trial-investigational-vaccine-covid-19-begins
This site lists all the vaccines being developed and how far along they are in testing. It also lists the number of subjects that will be included for those vaccines in phase 3 or combined phase 2/3.
NYT: Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker
* This post was
edited 08/12/20 07:21pm by BCSnob *
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silversand
Montreal
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Joined: 09/12/2004
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Thanks BC Snob for the info and all the links.
My thoughts are that a suite of vaccines will eventually come out of Phase 3 for deployment; however, I hope that at least a few vaccines under current Phase 3 are using adjuvants dialed-in to be successful for us 60+ million in North America over the age of 60. Not just the very healthy and young population cohort 50s and under.
Silver
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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Really good overview on the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in development and how they work
Wash. Post. “These are the top coronavirus vaccines to watch“
* This post was
edited 08/13/20 12:33pm by BCSnob *
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qtla9111
Monterrey, Mexico
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This Is What We Know About The Vaccine in Mexico and Argentina. (In Spanish)
Mexico & Argentina have made an agreement with AstraZeneca; University of Oxford, for the vaccine which will be produced by mAbxience, in Argentina, and Laboratorios Liomont in México.
Mexico has set aside 25 MMDP ($1.25 billion USD) for the project in association with the Slim Foundation, philanthropic group which was started years ago by Carlos Slim one of the richest persons in the world.
They are estimating a cost of 89 pesos or roughly $4 USD per person and the vaccine will be distributed to all Mexicans at no cost. The vaccine will be made available to all of Latin America.
Question: Is the vaccine being paid for by all governments or are the vaccines, in the case of the U.S., paid for by insurance carriers and individuals who can afford to pay?
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charlestonsouthern
Summerville, SC
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Joined: 04/16/2009
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Chris, I have great faith in the Oxford version of the vaccination out of the U.K. The flu shot we took last year was a highly potent one which was effective for different strains of flu (because of our ages); one of the components in the shot was SARS-related. The SARS-related portion (which is also related to the virus of Covid-19) is the basis early on by Oxford for building the vaccine to defeat Covid-19. Even my own primary care doctor has said because that the SARS component was in my flu shot, I MAY have some protection now from Covid. My strong flu shot is to be taken next month; maybe that will help a little before mass vaccinations. But it looks like Oxford may be only given in Mexico.
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edited 08/14/20 01:54am by charlestonsouthern *
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MEXICOWANDERER
las peñas, michoacan, mexico
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Having a Mexican family in Mexico I can suggest many many families have 2 three or 4 working members. It's inevitable they bring they bring the virus home. I can imagine the looming disaster when schools reopen. Training kids in social distancing not coughing, masks and proper hand washing is like training a pig to whistle.
I hired Dalia's godmother an accredited primera and secondaria teacher retired to come for 5 hours. Because she is in strict cuarantina at home I trust this. The three girls are actually ahead of their age group. Pilar the 4th is 19. So Dalia is using her books. Blanca the teacher is strict.
Mexico has tiny corner grocery martes
To maintain 6' distance you would have to be on the other side of a wall
Pilar and my daughter maintain strict distancing. They shop ONLY at an open air market that has a stiff ocean breeze running through it. They know about the dangers of being jammed on an ex school bus that has all of the windows corroded shut.
God help Mexico it's myths, customs and beliefs like taking a shower after eating warermelon brings on a heart attack.
Almost all rural people are burying their own dead. With maybe 20 neighbors and friends in close attendance.
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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Joined: 02/23/2002
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I have been involved in discussions on how to provide testing to universities do that they can monitor and control/prevent the spread of Covid-19. These discussions have raised a question for me that I’d like to pose. First I should provide done background information.
Quote:The incubation period for COVID-19 is thought to extend to 14 days, with a median time of 4-5 days from exposure to symptoms onset.
Quote:Increasing numbers of epidemiologic studies have documented SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the pre-symptomatic incubation period.
CDC coronavirus
Post exposure the virus can start replicate between 1-14 days (as indicated by symptoms) with 4-5 days being typical. Post exposure people can be infectious before the onset of symptoms (presymptomatic) if they ever develop symptoms (asymptomatic). I’ve seen some reports that presymptomatic people are infectious 1-3days before the onset of symptoms.
My question is:
How many days after sample collection is a negative PCR test result of value?
As few as 1-3 days if the sample is taken the day before exposure to the virus?
This should set the maximum time from sample collection to test result.
* This post was
edited 08/18/20 07:24pm by BCSnob *
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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Quantifying the efficiency of non-pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-COV-2 transmission in Europe
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.17.20174821
"We found that bans on mass gatherings had the largest effect among NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), followed by school closures, teleworking, and stay home orders."
In other words, separate people and you reduce the ability of the virus to be transmitted person-to-person.
The use of masks was not wide spread in the data reviewed for this analysis and therefore they could not draw conclusions on its effectiveness at reducing the transmission of the virus.
Quote:Overall, the combination of NPIs implemented as part of PHRs across Europe had a high efficiency at reducing transmission rates, with a median reduction of 74%. With an estimated basic reproduction number R0 of about 3, standard epidemiological models of COVID-19 suggest that to decrease the effective reproductive ratio below 1, transmission rates need to be reduced by at least 66%(6).
NPI = non-pharmaceutical interventions
PHR = public health responses
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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COVID-19: Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the United States before Phased Removal of Social Distancing Protections Varies by Region
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.18.20177600
Quote:Data (analyzed) include 3142 counties from all 50 US states and the District of Columbia.
County-level NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) were obtained from online county and state policy databases, then classified into four intervention levels: Level 1 (low), declaration of a State of Emergency; Level 2 (moderate), school closures, restricting nursing home access, or closing restaurants and bars; Level 3 (high), non-essential business closures, suspending non-violent arrests, suspending elective medical procedures, suspending evictions, or restricting mass gatherings of at least 10 people; and Level 4 (aggressive). sheltering in place / stay-at-home, public mask requirements, or travel restrictions.
Quote:Aggressive NPIs (level 4) significantly reduced COVID-19 case and death rates in all US Census Regions, with effect sizes ranging from 4.1% to 25.7% and 5.5% to 25.5%, respectively, for each day they were active. No other intervention level achieved significance across all US Regions. Intervention levels 3 and 4 both increased COVID-19 doubling times, with effects peaking at 25 and 40 days after initiation of each policy, respectively. The effectiveness of level 3 NPIs varied, reducing case rates in all regions except North Central states, but associated with significantly higher death rates in all regions except Pacific states. Intervention levels 1 and 2 did not indicate any effect on COVID-19 propagation and, in some regions, these interventions were associated with increased COVID-19 cases and deaths.
Regions that implemented non-essential business closures, suspending non-violent arrests, suspending elective medical procedures, suspending evictions, or restricting mass gatherings of at least 10 people "flattened the curve" there was also an increase in death rates in those regions relative to not having these interventions.
Regions that implemented sheltering in place / stay-at-home, public mask requirements, or travel restrictions "flattened the curve" and decreased the death rates relative to regions that did not implement these restrictions.
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