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 > 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/10/20 07:41am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine when tested in non-human primates (pre-clinical trial) provided immunity with one injection.

Single-shot Ad26 vaccine protects against SARS-CoV-2 in rhesus macaques

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/10/20 01:02pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Neutralizing antibody response in non-hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 patients

Quote:

Abstract

The majority of infections with SARS-CoV-2 (SCoV2) are asymptomatic or mild without the necessity of hospitalization. It is of outmost importance to reveal if these patients develop an antibody response against SCoV2 and to define which antibodies confer virus neutralization. We hence conducted a comprehensive serological survey of 49 patients with a mild course of disease and quantified neutralizing antibody responses against authentic SCoV2 employing human cells as targets. Four patients (8%), even though symptomatic, did not develop antibodies against SCoV2 and two other sera (4%) were only positive in one of the serological assays employed. For the remainder, antibody response against the S-protein correlated with serum neutralization whereas antibodies against the nucleocapsid were poor predictors of virus neutralization. Only six sera (12%) could be classified as highly neutralizing. Furthermore, sera from several individuals with fairly high antibody levels had only poor neutralizing activity. In addition, our data suggest that antibodies against the seasonal coronavirus 229E contribute to SCoV2 neutralization. Altogether, we show that there is a wide breadth of antibody responses against SCoV2 in patients that differentially correlate with virus neutralization. This highlights the difficulty to define reliable surrogate markers for immunity against SCoV2.


Small study; larger studies needed.
Not everyone that is Covid-19 positive (by PCR) with mild symptoms developed antibodies against the virus.
Antibodies against s-protein (the spike) were correlated with neutralization (conferred immunity).
Antibodies against n-protein did not correlate with immunity......In other words, antibody tests that measure "N-antibodies" only tell you about past infections while offering no information on future immunity.

* This post was edited 08/10/20 01:16pm by BCSnob *

qtla9111

Monterrey, Mexico

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Posted: 08/10/20 04:38pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Mexico is falling far behind in testing. Many major cities and suburban areas have drive through testing based on a list of possible symptoms. Mexico is approaching 53,000 deaths due to COVID in a population just below 130 million.

Mexico Flying Blind As Lack Of Covid-19 Testing Mystifies Experts


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silversand

Montreal

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Posted: 08/12/20 09:03am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

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Mexico is falling far behind in testing. Many major cities and suburban areas have drive through testing based on a list of possible symptoms. Mexico is approaching 53,000 deaths due to COVID in a population just below 130 million.


Holas Chris:

.....I use Costa Rica as the Latin America situation benchmark for reporting epidemics, outbreaks, and now pandemics. Costa Rica had a deaths per 100,000 from Coronavirus 19 level at 0.74 Compare this with Mexico at the same publication date (July 15th) of 28.79 so, we have to ask ourselves, "why the enormous difference?". Costa Rica is nearly at the very bottom of mortalities rates for the Caribbean and Latina America....as is Venezuela (! ?). I infer from the Statista German-based statistical portal's numbers that Venezuela has zero capacity to manage, test and deal with Coronavirus restrictions in their country, and Costa Rica has the best testing, hospitalization, health-care system, and extremely strict closure and isolation response in Latin America, so I tend to believe Costa Rica's mortality numbers.

Now, Mexico. Why is Mexico's death rate so astronomically high, and only surpassed by just 4 countries in Latina America and the Caribbean, as of July 15th (site: Statista portal)? Whatever the answer to that question turns out to be, if Mexico's mortality rate is to be believed, Mexico is in very deep, deep trouble if, as the article you link to, suggests that Mexico is throwing every caution to the wind, and allowing its entire population to be infected towards some sort of "herd immunity" program.

IF Mexico is pursuing a herd immunity program, it may take a year or two before the majority of the population gets the infection (and this would be tempered by any vaccine that may eventually become available to Mexico, and deployed, in maybe a year or two realistically). This would not bode well for RVing and tourism in Mexico over the coming several years, and would not bode well for expats presently living / long-terming in Mexico.

Cheers for now, careful out there...


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dturm

Lake County, IN

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Posted: 08/12/20 09:25am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

There are some problems with the herd immunity approach that allows the disease to infect a population. Among them is the fact that a health care system would probably be unable to deal with the amount of illness as the disease goes through the population, would also be true in the US as well.

Also, we are learning that there can be some "long term" health issues even in individuals that have mild and asymptomatic disease. We don't really know how long the "long term" issues last, but that issue worries me.

The best way to achieve herd immunity is through a vaccination program, hopefully that can be achieved through the first half of 2021.


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silversand

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Posted: 08/12/20 10:11am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BC Snob wrote:

Tracking Changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike: Evidence that D614G Increases Infectivity of the COVID-19 Virus


....I've always wondered not "if", but "when" the sars-cov-2 proof-reading system makes an copying error, and a regular genome examination "catches" it as a dissimilarity (shortly after a country wide or Global deployment of a/some Phase 3 success), how quickly a safe version 2.0 vaccine could be modified from version 1.0 as version 1.0 is scrapped/recalled ? Its known that sars-cov-2 doesn't mutate particularly quickly....but eventually it ("it" being the spike protein) will.

Anyone?

dturm wrote:

The best way to achieve herd immunity is through a vaccination program, hopefully that can be achieved through the first half of 2021.


....yeah, I agree with you vis the health care system becoming overloaded in a let loose going for herd immunity approach. Fingers crossed for an effective suite of vaccines.

* This post was edited 08/12/20 10:24am by silversand *

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/12/20 10:42am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

silversand wrote:

....I've always wondered not "if", but "when" the sars-cov-2 proof-reading system makes an copying error, and a regular genome examination "catches" it as a dissimilarity (shortly after a country wide or Global deployment of a/some Phase 3 success), how quickly a safe version 2.0 vaccine could be modified from version 1.0 as version 1.0 is scrapped/recalled ? Its known that sars-cov-2 doesn't mutate particularly quickly....but eventually it ("it" being the spike protein) will.


The receptor binding domain of the spike protein recognizes and binds to the receptor on the human ACE2 protein which is on surfaces of cells; this is a key mechanism for how this virus infects humans. If the vaccines target this specific region of the virus and the virus changes in this region the vaccine will likely become ineffective AND the virus may no longer be able to bind to the human ACE2 receptor (become non-infectious).

qtla9111

Monterrey, Mexico

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Posted: 08/12/20 11:49am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

silversand wrote:

Quote:

Mexico is falling far behind in testing. Many major cities and suburban areas have drive through testing based on a list of possible symptoms. Mexico is approaching 53,000 deaths due to COVID in a population just below 130 million.


Holas Chris:


Now, Mexico. Why is Mexico's death rate so astronomically high, and only surpassed by just 4 countries in Latina America and the Caribbean, as of July 15th (site: Statista portal)? Whatever the answer to that question turns out to be, if Mexico's mortality rate is to be believed, Mexico is in very deep, deep trouble if, as the article you link to, suggests that Mexico is throwing every caution to the wind, and allowing its entire population to be infected towards some sort of "herd immunity" program.

IF Mexico is pursuing a herd immunity program, it may take a year or two before the majority of the population gets the infection (and this would be tempered by any vaccine that may eventually become available to Mexico, and deployed, in maybe a year or two realistically). This would not bode well for RVing and tourism in Mexico over the coming several years, and would not bode well for expats presently living / long-terming in Mexico.

Cheers for now, careful out there...


There has been no mention of herd immunity yet. We got off to a very bad start and our illustrious president. He first stated that there was the first case reported but "it is all under control" and no need to worry. Cases began to appear each week and he then pulled his amulets out of his wallet and said he was protected by them. Our head epidemiologist began appearing weekly with statistics saying "masks" were not an answer or a solution. It wasn't until the end of June (I believe) that he gave in and said masks do matter. The president still is not wearing a mask, only on commercial flights as he refuses to use the presidential jet. Another story.

Mexico City literally ran out of hospital space and non-Covid emergencies were farmed out to private hospitals. That didn't last long because the rules were not clear and people didn't know where to go for what. One of Monterrey's IMSS hospitals dedicated to Covid was full and had a waiting list for over two weeks.

Where are we now? Most of the country is still under lockdown as seen by the map I posted the other day on page 44 of this thread. In rural areas, such as where I live, most people say that their DNA protects them or that this is a hoax to bring down our president. We went out on Sunday to pick up our grocery order and as we live in a tourist area places are supposed to remain closed on weekends. Most of them were but not all. I have to say that on our roundtrip through the tourist area, 98% were using masks (people from the city).

As of last night we were at 53,929 deaths or almost 900 deaths for just one day. It isn't getting any better and the graphs will show that. The epidemiologist is no longer appearing every evening. He comes out on Tuesday mornings and then once every two weeks at night. He can no longer justify his findings and the critics are after him. 10 state governors have asked for him to resign.

silversand

Montreal

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Posted: 08/12/20 01:41pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Chris:

Wow. The hospital emergency capacity in those areas you elaborate on seems dire. With a waiting list at hospital emergency ERs flooded with Covid patients, anyone presenting to the hospitals in question (hospitals designated as Covid treatment centers) will be completely out of luck, no matter what emergency presents. This is the point at which the mortalities for Covid (and probably every other serious condition, if Covid patients turned away from hospitals set up to handle air-borne, are sent to treatment facilities not set up for said) will rocket up. It sounds like the expat / tourist communities are wearing masks for the most part.

BC Snob wrote:

The receptor binding domain of the spike protein recognizes and binds to the receptor on the human ACE2 protein which is on surfaces of cells; this is a key mechanism for how this virus infects humans. If the vaccines target this specific region of the virus and the virus changes in this region the vaccine will likely become ineffective AND the virus may no longer be able to bind to the human ACE2 receptor (become non-infectious).


...OK. But I wonder if developing a slight modification to a spike protein vaccine will require significant time, multi=Phase testing, and significant lead times to manufacture, or, like a new flu vaccine reassembly, a new vaccine can be made and distributed more rapidly?

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/12/20 01:54pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

There must be a way for rapid deployment of vaccines that have subtle changes in the “antigen”; this happens every year with the seasonal flu vaccines. What I don’t know is if any the of sars-cov-2 vaccines being developed are analogous to the flu vaccine in terms of the “antigen”. Moderna’s mRNA vaccine is not and I don’t know how the fda would deal with a modified mRNA vaccine.

It sounds like the flu vaccine antigen is coupled to another virus when making the vaccine.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/how-fluvaccine-made.htm

This sounds similar to the way the Oxford U SARS-CoV-2 vaccine antigen is made.

* This post was edited 08/12/20 02:04pm by BCSnob *

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