Coast Resorts Open Roads Forum: Around the Campfire: 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
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 > 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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Moderator

Tennessee

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Posted: 06/26/20 02:45pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Alright, everyone take a BIG breath! We will get through this thing although it isn't going to happen over night.

So, just a review of the purpose of this thread:

"We ask you share only information that may be helpful and/or comforting to our members. In addition, we ask you only post information regarding current status of, spread of, medication for, behaviors advised, etc. from those sources most capable of providing current and accurate information, and please cite and/or quote the source(s). Some examples are the World Health Organization, National Institute for Health, and the Center for Disease Control.

We will closely monitor the posts for adherence to the above guidelines. We are all in this together, let us work together, and watch out for the health of each other. "

Carry on....

2oldman

NM

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Posted: 06/26/20 03:18pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Moderator wrote:

We will closely monitor the posts for adherence to the above guidelines. We are all in this together, let us work together, and watch out for the health of each other. "
Unfortunately we are not all in this together.

RambleOnNW

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Posted: 06/26/20 03:37pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Here is a report on two hairstylists in Missouri that were found to be infected with Covid-19 and had had 140 clients. Result: No clients were infected. The hairstylists and all 140 clients were wearing masks.

https://www.livescience.com/hair-stylists-infected-covid19-face-masks.html


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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 06/26/20 06:59pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

46 of the 140 potentially exposed people chose to be tested. None of the 140 developed symptoms. What about the untested 94, were they asymptomatic carriers?

The information is incomplete.

* This post was edited 06/26/20 07:07pm by BCSnob *

RambleOnNW

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Posted: 06/26/20 07:47pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Read the complete article and links. Those who were not tested were quarantined with no symptoms. So further transmission by the 140, if it was even possible, was stopped cold since all 140 were quarantined.

BCSnob

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Posted: 06/26/20 08:10pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I did read the linked health department report. Here is a report where asymptotic patients were positive for the virus for 2 months, much longer than the typical self quarantine time. I’m not sure we have a full undying how long asymptomatic patients are infectious.

The clinical feature of silent infection........onavirus infection (COVID?19) in Wenzhou
Quote:

Of the 12 patients (median age was 31 years with a range from 10 to 54 years, 50% were female), three had a trip to Wuhan recently. Due to the silent nature of the infection, the patients did not manifest any clinical symptoms and did not report any health complaints. Table 1 shows the basic demographic characteristics, history of chronic diseases before hospitalization, and blood test results. Compared with other patients, these cases are more likely to be young and healthy. Except for one patient with lymphocytopenia, the white blood cells and lymphocytes of the other patients were normal, and the nucleic acid continued to be positive in 12 patients. All patients had no chronic underlying diseases except for one with rheumatoid arthritis. Two of the patients had the virus for more than a month and pulmonary lesions in the asymptomatic infected patients were mild and resulted in no pneumonia.


Clinical characteristics of 24 asymptoma........d among close contacts in Nanjing, China
Quote:

The median communicable period, defined as the interval from the first day of positive nucleic acid tests to the first day of continuous negative tests, was 9.5 days (up to 21 days among the 24 asymptomatic cases).


The quarantine period was based on how long does it take for an exposed person to develop symptoms not how long is an asymptomatic person infectious.

* This post was last edited 06/26/20 08:33pm by BCSnob *   View edit history

RambleOnNW

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Posted: 06/26/20 08:39pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Are you familiar with statistical sampling? The sample size of 46 tests negative closely matches statistical sampling producing a conclusion of no one was infected out of a population of 140 with a 90% confidence, a margin of error of +/- 10%, and a sample size of 47.

You can check the numbers here.

Also I read about the 24 asymptomatic patients and the situation is not comparable. The 24 were selected as asymptomatic close contacts of other infected people. 5 out of the 24 eventually showed typical Covid-19 symptoms.

* This post was edited 06/26/20 09:07pm by RambleOnNW *

pianotuna

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Posted: 06/26/20 09:58pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RambleOnNW wrote:

Here is a report on two hairstylists in Missouri that were found to be infected with Covid-19 and had had 140 clients. Result: No clients were infected. The hairstylists and all 140 clients were wearing masks.

https://www.livescience.com/hair-stylists-infected-covid19-face-masks.html


And here is what happened in Canada when a nail salon did not use masks:

10 covid cases:

https://globalnews.ca/news/7107462/kingston-nail-salon-covid-19-outbreak/

Video explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=yo........jAig_rDVUzAQqpptWy_HfgH2AC90&app=desktop

So far the "chain" has affected 700 souls.

If you love your children, wear a mask.


Regards, Don
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BCSnob

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Posted: 06/27/20 05:17am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RambleOnNW wrote:

Are you familiar with statistical sampling? The sample size of 46 tests negative closely matches statistical sampling producing a conclusion of no one was infected out of a population of 140 with a 90% confidence, a margin of error of +/- 10%, and a sample size of 47.

You can check the numbers here.

Also I read about the 24 asymptomatic patients and the situation is not comparable. The 24 were selected as asymptomatic close contacts of other infected people. 5 out of the 24 eventually showed typical Covid-19 symptoms.
confidence intervals start with the assumption that the population has a normal distribution of results; here the population distribution could be bi modal.

For some deep reading on confidence intervals and non normal population distributions read this: Open Journal of Statistics

Let’s assume the statistical analysis you presented is correct; that means up to 7 people could have left quarantine as asymptotic carriers; at least 95% of the population were negative and up to 5% were positive.

* This post was edited 06/27/20 05:24am by BCSnob *

dturm

Lake County, IN

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Posted: 06/27/20 05:30am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Your statistical arguments are way beyond my level of understanding [emoticon]

What this episode concerning the positive hair dressers and 140 clients tells me is:

1. Masks are very important is reducing spread of disease and
2. We need massive testing so potential spreaders can isolate and we won't have these situations as we open up.


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