Crowe
Merrimack, NH
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I just looked at more of this thread and just have a few comments to make based on this "statistic":
But now we're finding that it's 10x+ more deadly than the flu.
By no means am I trying to downplay this virus but there are a few things to consider. We truly don't know how many people actually have this virus due to not testing everybody. If as many more people are infected as believed then the death rate is much lower than is being recorded as it's a smaller part of a much larger number. Keep in mind the death rate number is not a true representation of what is happening. Situations like the nursing home in Washington State (and now elsewhere) skew the numbers considerably. Raw data without interpretation does not necessarily represent the real picture. Does this make the situation any less dire? Not really but in a time when many people seem to only want to cause more panic sometimes one needs to sit back, take a breath and realize, again, that the vast majority of people who get the virus will not fall into that statistical category.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be Douglas Adams
RV-less for now but our spirits are still on the open road.
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2oldman
NM
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Crowe wrote: Keep in mind the death rate number is not a true representation of what is happening. Situations like the nursing home in Washington State (and now elsewhere) skew the numbers considerably.. A true representation of what is happening is that hospitals are being overwhelmed with people dying from this, and can't get proper protective equipment. You really don't want to have to go to the hospital for anything. I've never seen anything like that in my life.
I like numbers too, but any comfort from statistics is of little value when this is happening. I'm just glad I can still take a breath.
* This post was
edited 03/30/20 01:00pm by 2oldman *
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turbojimmy
New Jersey
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Crowe wrote:I just looked at more of this thread and just have a few comments to make based on this "statistic":
But now we're finding that it's 10x+ more deadly than the flu.
By no means am I trying to downplay this virus but there are a few things to consider. We truly don't know how many people actually have this virus due to not testing everybody. If as many more people could be infected as believed then the death rate is much lower than is being recorded as it's a smaller part of a much larger number. Keep in mind the death rate number is not a true representation of what is happening. Situations like the nursing home situation in Washington State (and now elsewhere) skew the numbers considerably. Raw data without interpretation does not necessarily represent the real picture. Does this make the situation any less dire? Not really but in a time when all most people seem to want to do is cause more panic sometimes one needs to sit back, take a breath and realize, again, that the vast majority of people who get the virus will not fall into that statistical category.
Yes I get that. The denominator in the equation is probably much bigger than what's being reported. The flu is around .1% (1/10th of a percent). I've been watching NJ's data (because it's where I live) and despite increased testing it's still hovering in the 1.4-1.5% range. I do think that given the number of people that have had it or who have it and aren't tested, that the real number is probably about around .5%, making it roughly 5x that of the flu. Just purely a wild guess based on the fact that I'm reasonably sure that everyone in family has had it but my wife is the only one who was actually positively diagnosed. Though the same argument can be made for the flu statistic - lots of people get it but aren't diagnosed.
1984 Allegro M-31 (Dead Metal)
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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Go look at the number of positive tests and the number of positive tests that have ended in recovery vs death. Keep in mind the criteria that must have been met to have been tested.
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Crowe
Merrimack, NH
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A true representation of what is happening is that hospitals are being overwhelmed with people dying from this,
Not exactly. They are being overwhelmed by cases in general.
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2oldman
NM
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Crowe wrote:A true representation of what is happening is that hospitals are being overwhelmed with people dying from this,Not exactly. They are being overwhelmed by cases in general. You are not in the hospital unless you're in bad shape.
* This post was
edited 03/30/20 02:44pm by 2oldman *
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turbojimmy
New Jersey
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BCSnob wrote:Go look at the number of positive tests and the number of positive tests that have ended in recovery vs death. Keep in mind the criteria that must have been met to have been tested.
The criteria varies state-by-state. In NJ, you have to be showing symptoms and be written a prescription by your doc to get tested. We're also being told that if you are exhibiting symptoms, don't leave your house unless you're turning blue. In that case go to the ER (where they test you). So in many cases they're only testing the sickest of the sick. I'm still convinced that there probably at least 3x as many people that have it or have had it than who have actually been tested positive.
I'm not downplaying the severity - it's in my house and it's a horrible disease. But I believe it is more survivable than the current statistics would imply.
That being said, and to the point that was made previously, hospitals are being overrun with patients in my area. If even 5% of those that test positive need hospitalized as projected, it will quickly overrun most cities' ability to care for the sick.
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dturm
Lake County, IN
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Aslo remember that the mortality statistics for the "normal" flu are estimates as well. Not all people who get the flu are tested or are treated and not all of those treated get reported. The comparisons of rates have to take all this into consideration, but the only reason to think the normal flu rate is any more accurate is that we have years of statistics rather than 3 months.
My comment, don't get hung up on the comparisons of mortality rates or the percentage of people who have minor disease. One being more than the other has no relevancy, other than academic and a way try to get across the severity of the problem.
The real issue is the number of people who will need advanced medical care at the same time. Because this is a new pathogen where no one has immunity, a highly contagious disease like this will spread through the population rapidly, or more slowly if we can mitigate the spread by using the recommendations that are in force.
Dr. Doug
* This post was
edited 03/30/20 02:37pm by dturm *
Doug & Sandy
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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“Only testing the sickest of this sick” is my point. >100,000 positive tests and likely a high percentage of the >100,000 positives are the sickest of the sick.
MD, VA, & DC are now under stay in your home except for essential travel.
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MEXICOWANDERER
las peñas, michoacan, mexico
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Another huge irritation is the lack of factual information. Here is one tiny example. My reporting is accurate. You can come to your own conclusion.
México Ensenada.
Mexican police cars don't use a siren to pull over traffic violators
They issue a loud "squawking" noise. There is a lockdown here in Ensenada
No public events. No school or college. All nonessential businesses closed. Restaurants closed. No need to close hotels because tourists have no way to eat or shop. No ocean liners.
Grocery stores limited hours and anti hoarding in full effect. Costco limits toilet paper sale by membership number. Soriana Walmart ley Sam's strict multiple limit purchases. Shortages of some pharmacy designer drugs popularized in the USA. Shortage means NONE AVAILABLE PERIOD.
People seen outside their home will be chastised by the local police.
I was followed until I turned into the driveway of a local farmacia
But has anyone reported this in the US Press?
One of my housekeepers is out of work at one one the larger tourist hotels in Ensenada. The other housekeeper has a similar schedule. One hour one day a week.
So tourism is actively discouraged without the use of marshal law.
Th he point here is there is a definite knowledge gap and USA news sources are definitely still hooked on
If it bleeds it leads
My I opinion is to keep everything in perspective. Don't funk into into a depression. Pure bad news is psychological. Once hooked on it, the addict feeds off it seeking more and more damage, negative political division, bleak outlooks and chickens for the gators.
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