NRALIFR
Let’s Go Girls! [End of Quote]
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Joined: 11/27/2005
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“ One way to calculated without variables is to divide deaths / (deaths + recovered)”
Calculating the death rate is also not easy if you don’t understand what you’re doing. Excluding the largest group of infected people (infected, alive) from the calculation is an obvious sampling bias flaw that in my opinion renders the resulting “statistic” meaningless. There’s also the question of how “recovered” is defined.
While the total infection rate may never be known with absolute certainty due to the many asymptomatic cases, it is absolutely certain that it is many times more than the symptomatic cases.
Just recently, every employee of a chicken processing plant in my state was tested for SARS-CoV-2, and they found 199 positives. Only one of those was symptomatic. This isn’t the only mass testing that has shown this to be true.
![[emoticon]](http://www.coastresorts.com/sharedcontent/cfb/images/smile.gif "smile")
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pasusan
Northernmost PA
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Joined: 05/13/2009
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^
"Just recently, every employee of a chicken processing plant in my state was tested for SARS-CoV-2, and they found 199 positives. Only one of those was symptomatic. This isn’t the only mass testing that has shown this to be true."
This is what has been bothering me for a while now... Of the people that test positive and show up on the charts - how many are symptomatic?
Also - are asymptomatic people able to infect others? I think I heard that WHO was now saying that was unlikely.
"I'm out here to enjoy nature -- don't talk to me about the environment!" ~Denny Crane
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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Joined: 02/23/2002
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This is a good overview of when people who test positive for the virus (with symptoms, before showing symptoms, and never developed symptoms) are shedding the virus (are infectious).
Asymptomatic Transmission, the Achilles’........f Current Strategies to Control Covid-19
New England Journal of Medicine
May 28, 2020
Quote:Quantitative SARS-CoV-2 viral loads were similarly high in the four symptom groups (residents with typical symptoms, those with atypical symptoms, those who were presymptomatic, and those who remained asymptomatic). It is notable that 17 of 24 specimens (71%) from presymptomatic persons had viable virus by culture 1 to 6 days before the development of symptoms.
The problem is that at the time of testing one cannot tell the difference between presymptomtic and asymptomatic patients.
This study indicated that a significant number of people (who were in close and continual contact) became infected by a covid positive patient before they showed symptoms.
Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19
This review of patients in Singapore found presymptomatic patients did infect others.
Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 — Singapore, January 23–March 16, 2020
Quote:In the four clusters for which the date of exposure could be determined, presymptomatic transmission occurred 1–3 days before symptom onset in the presymptomatic source patient.
This study followed cruise line passengers after they were evacuated from the ship and estimated that 17.9% of positive covid passengers were asymptomatic.
Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond
Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
published on 12 Mar 2020
I've not found a published study that followed asymptomatic people to see how many they infected. The estimate for those who are infected but are asymptotic is approximately 20%; however, infected people can infect others before they develop symptoms (presymptomatic), perhaps as much as 6 days before the onset of symptoms.
Now consider how much faith you should have in the temperature checks being used at meat processing plants (and other companies) as a means to prevent infectious employees from coming to work.
I believe a key to transmission is the amount of virus one is exposed to; how much virus is being shed by infectious people (the amount of virus being put into the environment) and how long one is in the "cloud" of virus containing particles.
* This post was
edited 06/22/20 07:27am by BCSnob *
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Frost12321
Atlanta
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It would be great if all people would wear masks, I understand that it's hot now, but earlier wasn't
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Frost12321
Atlanta
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does somebody think that wearing masks is silly?
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Geo*Boy
Unknown
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Joined: 04/27/2020
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Frost12321 wrote:does somebody think that wearing masks is silly?
Not at all. Wearing masks has proven to slow the spread. Surgeons wear them 8+ hours a day during procedures, would you want a bunch of people standing over your open wound and having a discussion without protection for you?
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2oldman
NM
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Joined: 04/15/2001
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Frost12321 wrote:does somebody think that wearing masks is silly? The "president" does. He's been mocking and dismissing this from day 1. We can see where's that's gotten us.
Wear your mask. Respect others. Listen to doctors, not politicians.
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Cloud Dancer
San Antonio and Livingston TX USA
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Joined: 06/08/2001
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I believe in the science of it. I'm wishing for a long happy life for everyone.
Willie & Betty Sue
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dturm
Lake County, IN
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I've worn a mask for the last 45 years, averaging probably 4 hours three times a week. I don't like them, could never find a way to prevent fogging glasses except tape anchoring the top of the mask to my skin.
The discomfort isn't an excuse for not complying. I wear a mask now any time it is warranted and required.
This isn't political, it's science and responsible behavior. Social distancing, masks, testing, isolation and contact tracing are the only tools we have until a vaccine is available.
Doug & Sandy
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donfla
home
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We believe in the science behind it too. People in areas that are getting hot again like here in Florida that don’t wear masks in close public conditions don’t understand how important it is to slow the transmission. Besides the health side, how massive the economic impact will be if shutdown orders start again is off of the charts scary.
A positive side of this Covid19 nightmare is we as a family have spent a lot of quality time together and hearing the same from other families. Crazy times but it seems manageable if everyone works together.
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