Gdetrailer wrote:



Not to mention UNDER REPORTING, UNDERTESTING can easily skew numbers which ever way one wants the numbers to turn out.. So, one must be careful when it comes to statistics, they CAN lie..

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After adjusting for population and test performance characteristics, we estimate that the seroprevalence of
antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County is between 2.49% and 4.16%, with uncertainty bounds
ranging from 1.80% (lower uncertainty bound of the lowest estimate), up to 5.70% (upper uncertainty
bound of the highest estimate).

The most important implication of these findings is that the number of infections is much greater than the
reported number of cases. Our data imply that, by April 1 (three days prior to the end of our survey)
between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of
confirmed positive cases in the county on April 1 was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of
infections predicted by this study.17 The infection to case ratio, also referred to as an under-ascertainment
rate, of at least 50, is meaningfully higher than current estimates.10,18 This ascertainment rate is a
fundamental parameter of many projection and epidemiologic models, and is used as a calibration target
for understanding epidemic stage and calculating fatality rates.19,20 The under-ascertainment for COVID-
19 is likely a function of reliance on PCR for case identification which misses convalescent cases, early
spread in the absence of systematic testing, and asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic infections that go
undetected.

We can use our prevalence estimates to approximate the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 in Santa
Clara County. As of April 10, 2020, 50 people have died of COVID-19 in the County, with an average
increase of 6% daily in the number of deaths. If our estimates of 48,000-81,000 infections represent the
cumulative total on April 1, and we project deaths to April 22 (a 3 week lag from time of infection to
death22), we estimate about 100 deaths in the county. A hundred deaths out of 48,000-81,000 infections
corresponds to an infection fatality rate of 0.12-0.2%.

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Therefore, for R0 = 2-3, nearly 50 to 66.66 percent* (threshold) of the population is required to be immune against COVID-19 for the protection of susceptible individuals in a given population through herd immunity.

dturm wrote:

That is some very good important information. If the infection rate is 5% that means that 95% of the population is still susceptible and virgin territory for this virus. It's a little reassuring that the mortality rate may be much lower than originally suspected.

The information seems to show that we have "flattened the curve" nationwide to the point that our health care system as a whole is handling the number of cases. BUT, there are still hotspots where the systems are taxed, in some cases where help outside their own community is needed.

With many states starting to relax stay at home orders, we're in uncharted territory because we don't really know the status of the population due to the lack of testing.

Best case, we're still going to have hotspots and localized epidemics until a vaccine or therapy or herd immunity occur.

Worst case, we'll have a second wave worse than the first, like what happened in the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic.

The big take away is that the virus is still out there. It is prudent to still take precautions, especially for those of us older folks.

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There are now alarming reports that the virus has spread to one-third of nursing homes in Stockholm, which has resulted in rising fatalities. While it is true that Swedes rarely live with their parents, older citizens are hardly isolated: The Scandinavian model simply outsources care from families to caretakers who visit dozens of clients every week. Caretakers are rarely tested for the virus but have simply been urged to stay at home if and shortly after experiencing symptoms.

Nor is there much indication that the Swedish economy is weathering the storm better than comparable countries. The drop in the stock market and the rise in unemployment are roughly in line with other advanced economies. According to official Swedish estimates, Sweden’s GDP is expected to contract by 3.4 percent this year, which is better than the 5.5 percent decline projected in a euro zone dragged down by Italy and Spain, but worse than the 2.9 percent decline prognosticated for the United States. If these prognoses are accurate, the Swedish experiment might indicate that the economic effects of the pandemic cannot be escaped by a laissez-faire approach, but that the crash is mainly driven by declining global demand, disruption in production chains, and a collective fear and loss of confidence among billions across the globe.

BCSnob wrote:

This article analyzed the economic impact of Sweden’s approach to the Covid-19 pandemic.

More Warning Signs in Sweden

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And while many other countries have introduced strict laws, including hefty fines if people are caught breaching newly minted social-distancing laws, Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation.. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.