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 > 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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pianotuna

Regina, SK, Canada

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Posted: 01/12/22 12:11pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BCSnob,

That is behind a paywall. Could you post them here?


Regards, Don
My ride is a 28 foot Class C, 256 watts solar, 556 amp-hours of Telcom jars, 3000 watt Magnum hybrid inverter, Sola Basic Autoformer, Microair Easy Start.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 01/12/22 12:22pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I could not copy the graphs from the news article but here are links to their sources.

Look at the graphs of weekly rates by vaccination status (second configurable graph at this link) NYC Dept of Health Covid Data

This report from Washington State Department of Health has multiple graphs comparing cases, hospitalization, deaths by vaccination status from several age groups. Take a close look at the difference between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated for the last time points in these plots. The ratios are much higher than the average ratios reported for the last 28days.

* This post was last edited 01/12/22 12:52pm by BCSnob *   View edit history

silversand

Montreal

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Posted: 01/13/22 07:37am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Unvaccinated 65+ year-olds are:

-6 times more likely to get COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated 65+ year-olds.
-11 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated 65+ yearolds.
-15 times more likely to die of COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated 65+ year-olds


....the above, from the Washington State report linked by BC Snob. Absolutely no contest for being fully vaccinated (this includes being boosted).

....I think where the vast population gets, um, confused about being vaccinated against sars-cov-2 is under the present situation, where Omicron has entirely escaped the vaccine's 1st defensive line (antibodies); however, the vaccine's 2nd line of defense (T and B cells) seem to be holding strong. If your T and B cells "act" fast (this of course, if you are really fully vaccinated), you may not feel many (if any) symptoms from Omicron at all.

The whole fully vaccinated game is about staying out of the hospital, or worse, becoming a mortality statistic. This, of course, applies to flu vaccines, too.

Correct BC ?


Silver
2004 Chevy Silverado 2500HD 4x4 6.0L Ext/LB Tow Package 4L80E Michelin AT2s| Outfitter Caribou

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 01/13/22 07:52am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I agree

The ratios you posted are from averages over the last 28 days of data; over those last 28 days the ratios were increasing.

Also, “fully vaccinated” includes all vaccines (1 shot of J&J, 2 shots of either mRNA, and any of these boosted) and any duration of time since being fully vaccinated. Other data indicates there are wide differences in the protection afforded within the category of “fully vaccinated”; however, fully vaccinated is by far better against omicron than not fully vaccinated.

silversand

Montreal

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Posted: 01/13/22 08:22am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BC Snob wrote:

The ratios you posted are from averages over the last 28 days of data; over those last 28 days the ratios were increasing.


...my two eyes are on those (delta) ratio spreads....check.

Any bleeding edge research (in preprint) on Omicron pathogenicity.... specifically, the contagious viral shedding period?

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 01/13/22 08:34am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Life (multiple issues at home and at work) has prevented me from having the time to focus on the posted preprints since Jan 1. It'll get even busier once our 60+ ewes start lambing.

I have a little time now.

* This post was edited 01/13/22 08:54am by BCSnob *

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 01/13/22 08:56am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Some good news.

Vaccines Elicit Highly Cross-Reactive Cellular Immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant
MedRxiv Preprint 2Jan2022

Quote:

The highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant has been shown to evade a substantial fraction of neutralizing antibody responses elicited by current vaccines that encode the WA1/2020 Spike immunogen1, resulting in increased breakthrough infections and reduced vaccine efficacy. Cellular immune responses, particularly CD8+ T cell responses, are likely critical for protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 disease2-6. Here we show that cellular immunity induced by current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is highly cross-reactive against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. Individuals who received Ad26.COV2.S or BNT162b2 vaccines demonstrated durable CD8+ and CD4+ T cell responses that showed extensive cross-reactivity against both the Delta and Omicron variants, including in central and effector memory cellular subpopulations. Median Omicron-specific CD8+ T cell responses were 82-84% of WA1/2020-specific CD8+ T cell responses. These data suggest that current vaccines may provide considerable protection against severe disease with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant despite the substantial reduction of neutralizing antibody responses.


While most studies of antibody responses show evasion by omicron which is partially restored by boosting (see quote below), this study of memory cells show vaccination continues to show protection against omicron.

Quote:

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Neutralization Data up to 2021-12-22
BioRxiv preprint 7Jan2022

Two definitive statements can be made from the aggregation of the early data on Omicron virus neutralization data. Sera from individuals who have been vaccinated twice or infected once show generally more than a 19x fold drop of titers, whereas people who have been vaccinated three times or have been vaccinated + infected show an average of approximately 7x fold drop of titers.


BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 01/13/22 10:01am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I’ve not found studies on the temporal progression of viral shedding due to omicron. I have seen comments (hypotheses) that since omicron starts replicating higher up in the lungs than delta it becomes contagious earlier after initial infection than with delta.

nickthehunter

Midwest

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Posted: 01/13/22 11:00am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

silversand wrote:

Unvaccinated 65+ year-olds are:

-6 times more likely to get COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated 65+ year-olds.
-11 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated 65+ yearolds.
-15 times more likely to die of COVID-19 compared with fully vaccinated 65+ year-olds


....the above, from the Washington State report linked by BC Snob. Absolutely no contest for being fully vaccinated (this includes being boosted).

....I think where the vast population gets, um, confused about being vaccinated against sars-cov-2 is under the present situation, where Omicron has entirely escaped the vaccine's 1st defensive line (antibodies); however, the vaccine's 2nd line of defense (T and B cells) seem to be holding strong. If your T and B cells "act" fast (this of course, if you are really fully vaccinated), you may not feel many (if any) symptoms from Omicron at all.

The whole fully vaccinated game is about staying out of the hospital, or worse, becoming a mortality statistic. This, of course, applies to flu vaccines, too.

Correct BC ?
No such correlation can be determined from that data. Nowhere in the data does it (for example) differentiate in "deaths with Covid" vs. "deaths due to Covid". You can have covid and die of a cancer and its all recorded the same "Covid Case".

Here is data from Minnesota: Clicky

* This post was edited 01/13/22 11:12am by nickthehunter *

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 01/13/22 11:26am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

nickthehunter wrote:

No such correlation can be determined from that data. Nowhere in the data does it (for example) differentiate in "deaths with Covid" vs. "deaths due to Covid". You can have covid and die of a cancer and its all recorded the same "Covid Case".

Here is data from Minnesota: Clicky


What is your hypothesis for the change in deaths overtime, if not Covid-19? Have deaths due to cancer increased since the beginning of the year?

What is being claimed in the opinion website you linked (not simply raw MN data as you imply) is that the deaths could have been due to the comorbidities; where the real question is would they have died now from their comorbidities if they had not gotten covid-19. This question is addressed by looking at excess mortality.

Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic

* This post was edited 01/13/22 11:45am by BCSnob *

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