Hurricaner
Hurricane Utah
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Joined: 02/17/2007
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I think this tread should be left alone, within reason. Its whole purpose is to give people a place to vent so they don't clog up the main board.
It's easy to be cynical in these times but in the long run this could be a good thing as we have been massive energy wasters for too long. If we can start producing all are own oil and drive more fuel efficient vehicles than we are all going to be better off. Now we just have to hope that can happen before the whole country goes in the toilet.
But I'm willing to bet the oil bubble will burst and by the end of the summer you will see oil back down to under 100 dollars a barrel. Or at least after the election, LOL.
Sam
Sam & Kari
Hurricane, Utah
2019 Winnebago Sightseer 33C
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topflite51
In The Desert of Nevada
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Joined: 05/13/2004
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Forget who is running for president. Go after the rep's and senators. They are the ones, who continually foul up the government. Too much credit or blame is placed on presidents. President's can only propose solutions, it takes Congress to muck it up. Tax cuts after 9/11 were good, but there were no corresponding spending cuts. Any dummy that knows anything, knows that there should have been. Yes revenues increased, just not as fast as spending. If that is called reckless for a family, what is it called for a government? The vaunted earmarks that virtually all elected officials pursue and protect is just a form of bribery of their constituents to keep reelecting them. When Members of Congress start uttering words like "nationalization" when discussions arise regarding the oil industry, see it for what it is, a soon to be way to increase taxes on fuel, it would become a boondoggle for spending. As an example, look what most governments have done with the money they are getting from the settlement with the cigarette companies. Have they put it aside for the expected health care costs of those who have smoked? NOPE. They have put it into their General Funds and have spent it on their pet projects. One has to look no farther than that to see what would happen with nationalization of the oil industry. There are politicians, from both sides, who are privately salivating at the mere thought of that CASH COW. You don't want to let them have it.
As to oil companies and their greed, probably should check your retirement accounts and see just how much of that greed is really you. You might just be amazed how greedy you actually are. One of the largest retirement funds in the country, has an enormous amount of money in the energy business, as do other retirement funds. If those companies were to be nationalized, there would a lot of mad, retired Californians and union members across the country. People should really be careful what they ask for, they just might get it.
">David
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w/F53 Southwind towing a 87 Samurai or 01 Grand Vitara looking to fish
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stevenicoldeactivate
Hillsboro, Oregon
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Joined: 01/27/2007
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Hurricaner wrote: ...I'm willing to bet the oil bubble will burst and by the end of the summer you will see oil back down to under 100 dollars a barrel. Or at least after the election, LOL.
Sam
Sam,
Could you please give us some more information on how there is an "oil bubble" that will burst. As a retired finance guy, when I play the "price movement" number game with Raw Crude on the NYSE, I see an upward correction that started around 55 bbl., which will peak sometime in early 2009; after this, I predict a price drop of no more than 38%.
So, if the BBL price peaks at $188, the bbl price will stablize somewhere around $132.00, then fall into Elliott 5 wave price movement like it has since the late 1970s.
We'll see. I sure hope that you're right, with a big bubble burst, and oil falling below $20 bbl. LOL
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topflite51
In The Desert of Nevada
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I too believe the correction is going to happen in early '09, but it will not happen before the entire world economic picture is one of recession / depression. How far will it drop, that really depends on where it peaks, I fully believe it will drop around 50% and hold. OPEC and others would drastically cut production if it were to start to fall any farther. There will be no $20 oil. I say that given the fact that it costs considerably more than that to produce a barrel of oil from the tar sands of Canada that is suitable for fuel production, and Canada is our largest supplier. So one can wave goodbye to that. Of course all this is just my humble opinion.![[emoticon]](http://www.coastresorts.com/sharedcontent/cfb/images/biggrin.gif "biggrin")
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46 Woodie
Elfin Forest, CA 92029
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I have read all 29 pages and found it all very interesting. I think a lot of responders have some good points. I think one part of this whole issue has not been addressed and I would like anyone to chime in on my thoughts. What is the impact of the Federal Reserve's discount rate in this? There seems to be an inverse relationship of the rise of a cost of crude and the decline of the Fed funds rate. Is the current Fed funds rate at a historical low? I am not on a rant that this problem is being caused by the Federal Reserve. However, it seems the value of the dollar is down, there appears to be cheap money available and no where to put it. The stock market is so-so, high tech stocks and real estate are in the tank. So is the only game in town to put money into oil? Please enlighten me
2005 Ford F350 Lariat crew cab SRW 6.0 4WD,Donahue suspension, air bags, bump stops, tow beast, Toyo AT's
1999 Lance 9500 11'3", Trimetric with dual 12 volts
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2007 KTM 525EXC
1946 CJ 2A
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res08hao
La Mirada, CA
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Joined: 07/15/2002
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46 Woodie wrote:I have read all 29 pages and found it all very interesting. I think a lot of responders have some good points. I think one part of this whole issue has not been addressed and I would like anyone to chime in on my thoughts. What is the impact of the Federal Reserve's discount rate in this? There seems to be an inverse relationship of the rise of a cost of crude and the decline of the Fed funds rate. Is the current Fed funds rate at a historical low? I am not on a rant that this problem is being caused by the Federal Reserve. However, it seems the value of the dollar is down, there appears to be cheap money available and no where to put it. The stock market is so-so, high tech stocks and real estate are in the tank. So is the only game in town to put money into oil? Please enlighten me
See today's WSJ, "the Outlook" by Justin Lahert: "..who says such speculative behavior is due to the sharp reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Low rates encourage commodity stockpiling, he says, by making it less attractive to sell commodities and put the proceeds into bonds and other debt instruments."
over the hill and enjoying the view
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topflite51
In The Desert of Nevada
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Since oil is currently traded in dollars, anything having an effect on its value definitely has effect on the price of oil in the worldwide market place. So the short answer is YES.
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eltejano1
Woodville, Texas
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Woodie, I don't know the economic mechanism behind it, but low interest rates
always seem to correlate with a weak dollar, which in turn raises the price of imported commodities like oil.
News today is a little better. New data shows that consumption is definitely down - about time! - and oil fell to $129 on that news, $5 less than Friday's high of $135.
Watched a documentary last night about making diesel and jet fuel from coal. The environmentalists are going to fight this tooth and nail - dirty process that takes a lot of cooling water. Not at all eco-friendly. I think there's a good possibility, though, that the greenies will be overriden as prices soar.
Environmentalism is a luxury that only extremely wealthy coutries can afford. Sad but true.
I also learned that sugar cane, which they use in Brazil, is far better than corn to make ethanol - higher sugar content = more alcohol. There's lots of land down here on the Gulf Coast that is presently in pine timber for paper production that could be converted to sugar cane. Grows like a weed around here.
Jack
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topflite51
In The Desert of Nevada
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Now that is laughable. An environmentalist who will listen to a reasonable stance and be willing to compromise. Where is that one environmentalist located? Heaven maybe?
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H_1
Flat Rock, Indiana, USA
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Joined: 11/30/2004
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Remember the good old days when the Cuyahoga River was burning, the Love Canal kids were starting to be diagnosed with some bad things,the smog in LA was thick enough that you could see thermals that popped the inversion layer (or not see the tops of buildings).
I do.
A certain amount of environmental responsibility (inconvenient word!) goes along with industrialization. How much is up for debate. After 8 years of tilting away from Europe, it's a dead gimme that the next pres is going to swing back a little (or a lot).
One last thought, a little more on topic, is that the simplest way for government to be involved is to institute rationing. Maybe you can get $3 gas, but only 100 gallons a year, for example. After that it's $6. (gotta pay the subsidy, you know). Somehow I don't think this is what people have in mind when clamoring for government intervention, but it's good to be careful what one asks for.
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