Coast Resorts Open Roads Forum: Around the Campfire: 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
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 > 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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charlestonsouthern

Summerville, SC

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Posted: 09/15/20 09:28pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Moderators, Thank you two so much for encouraging "sourcing."


--------------
You are welcome! If there was ever a time we need as current and reliable information/data possible it is now. Our health is at stake and hearsay, rumors, and unreliable information can be deadly. We are thankful most members try to vette their information. The 'tricky' part is what was believed a few days ago may no longer be true due to new information being revealed every few days; so sourcing needs to be as recent as possible.

* This post was edited 09/16/20 06:38am by an administrator/moderator *

JaxDad

Greater Toronto Area

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Posted: 09/16/20 05:52am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

charlestonsouthern wrote:

BCSnob -- You are good (really, no kidding) at sourcing information; so (if you are not too busy) I would ask you if you didn't mind trying to source the following quoted conclusion written by an RV.net member. The inference was as a scientific conclusion. If it becomes too time consuming, don't worry about it; I'll have my physician, Dr. David Leventhal, check it out (he likes doing these things) when I go for my regular check up on Friday. Here it is as follows:

"Within fractions of a percent, you are just as likely to become infected in Michigan or Vermont as you are in Florida or Arizona or California. There is scant evidence that locking yourself in your home with minimal contact with the outside world is significantly safer than engaging in activities while taking reasonable precautions. I am not aware of any studies that have shown Essential Retail employees (grocery store, hardware store, Walmart, etc.) or truckers, or delivery drivers or many other people who have daily, yet limited in duration, contact with the public suffer infection rates higher than the general population. . . . ."


First, I believe that quote was someone other than BCSnob, but regardless.

I can shed a little light on the Florida - Vermont statement.

As of today, The infection rate in Vermont is 273 per 100,000 of population.

The infection rate in Florida is 3,114 per 100,000 people.

That means the infection rate in Florida is 1,153.33% higher than in Vermont.

That is NOT “within fractions of a percent”.

US COVID cases by State.

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 09/16/20 11:51am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Think of contagion like it's Alfa radiation.

Intensity and duration. Only the virus is highly influenced good or bad by air movement. And virus dies, while irradiation sources have a half-life.

If twenty individuals occupy one acre of area out of doors there is little "danger" of contamination if a person keeps their distance from a contaminated person. A breeze is your best friend. Obviously this has limits like a concert or a stadium event. Either far exceeds twenty individuals per acre of area.

But indoors especially in the winter, recirculated heated air is hazardous. Just as, cooled summer air. The evil word is "recirculated"

Down here, large stores construct "One departs allowing another to enter" rules. Some like Costco are strict. I was horrified when I entered Home Depot. I exited post haste. Final visit.

I have a one-person iron rule about people in my car. A known person means all windows down, an "unknown" does not enter the car.

Housekeeper days means she is alone in a room while I occupy another. Windows and doors open, fans blasting. Strict rules. Headache. fever or cough means PAID LEAVE, eliminates coming because they need the money.

Enter the house and wash with Hexacloridene Gluconate. Surgeons scrub.

Mask on both myself and the housekeeper. Use bathroom, Clorox in toilet, spray disinfectant on fixture and re-wash hands. I never occupy the same room.

Everything from the store undergoes an iodine laced 15 minute soak in the sink. Paper gets wiped.

No tomfoolery about masks down here. The maskless cannot enter a store. Then the police are called.

I hope the new vaccine arrives soon and proves to be effective. Living with all of these do's and don'ts is getting tiresome.

pianotuna

Regina, SK, Canada

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Posted: 09/16/20 06:15pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Mex,

Very good guidelines to follow.


Regards, Don
My ride is a 28 foot Class C, 256 watts solar, 556 amp-hours of Telcom jars, 3000 watt Magnum hybrid inverter, Sola Basic Autoformer, Microair Easy Start.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 09/18/20 02:20pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I haven't read and comprehended this study fully. What the authors are saying is our perception of which age groups are at greater risk of infection is highly skewed by the level of testing performed on people in these age groups. After adjusting for the level of testing, they find:
Quote:

These results, which we were able to partially validate using seroprevalence data from individuals older than 18 years of age, suggest that the high rates of reported COVID-19 in older adults are most likely due to increased testing due to increased disease severity (21); in fact, older adults may be at less risk of infection than younger individuals, possibly due to greater adherence with social distancing, masking and other protective behaviors (22). By contrast, adults aged 20-29 are at markedly higher risk of infection after adjustment for decreased testing frequency; this again likely reflects risk perceptions and lack of adherence to preventive measures (22), while adolescents and teens had test-adjusted estimates of risk similar to those in the population as a whole.

The finding that children 10 and older are infected at rates similar to the population as a whole, after adjustment for testing frequency, is consistent with expectations for a pandemic disease, in which high attack rates reflect initial universal susceptibility to disease.

Source: COVID-19 Case-Age Distribution: Correction for Differential Testing by Age


This analysis is for rates of infection not severity of the infection.

Moderator

Tennessee

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Posted: 09/18/20 04:17pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Quote:

This analysis is for rates of infection not severity of the infection.


Thanks for the disclaimer; makes it easier to understand the summary. [emoticon]

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 09/20/20 11:50am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Suseptibility is heavily influenced by social habits. Parents that do not filter social contacts of young children put them at higher percentage risk of infection. Many young children forget to distance themselves or even to wash their hands.

Calculations of severity of an individual's infection are based on statistical averaging and trends and tendencies. Educated guessing. But educated guesswork is a far cry from oujia guesswork.

JaxDad

Greater Toronto Area

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Posted: 09/20/20 03:33pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

MEXICOWANDERER wrote:

Suseptibility is heavily influenced by social habits. Parents that do not filter social contacts of young children put them at higher percentage risk of infection. Many young children forget to distance themselves or even to wash their hands.


Unfortunately this virus a BIG exception to the long held “you have to eat a peck of dirt before you die’ theory of building immunity, even a tiny exposure can lead to a severe case.

The idea of herd immunity is a really risky proposition with this one!

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 09/21/20 07:36am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Early Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Convalescent Plasma in Patients Admitted for COVID-19: A Randomized Phase II Clinical Trial
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.17.20196212

Quote:

Abstract

Background: Convalescent plasma (CP), despite limited evidence on its efficacy, is being widely used as a compassionate therapy for hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of early CP therapy in COVID-19 progression. Methods: Open-label, single-center, randomized clinical trial performed in an academic center in Santiago, Chile from May 10, 2020, to July 18, 2020, with final follow-up August 17, 2020. The trial included patients hospitalized within the first 7 days of COVID-19 symptoms onset, presenting risk factors for illness progression and not on mechanical ventilation. The intervention consisted in immediate CP (early plasma group) versus no CP unless developing pre-specified criteria of deterioration (deferred plasma group). Additional standard treatment was allowed in both arms. The primary outcome was a composite of mechanical ventilation, hospitalization for >14 days or death. Key secondary outcomes included: time to respiratory failure, days of mechanical ventilation, hospital length-of-stay, mortality at 30 days, and SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR clearance rate. Results: Of 58 randomized patients (mean age, 65.8 years, 50% male), 57 (98.3%) completed the trial. A total of 13 (43.3%) participants from the deferred group received plasma based on clinical aggravation. We found no benefit in the primary outcome (32.1% vs 33.3%, OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.32-2.84, p>0.99) in the early versus deferred CP group. In-hospital mortality rate was 17.9% vs 6.7% (OR 3.04, 95% CI 0.54-17.2, p=0.25), mechanical ventilation 17.9% vs 6.7% (OR 3.04, 95% CI 0.54-17.2, p=0.25), and prolonged hospitalization 21.4% vs 30% (OR 0.64, 95%CI, 0.19-2.1, p=0.55) in early versus deferred CP group, respectively. Viral clearance rate on day 3 (26% vs 8%, p=0.20) and day 7 (38% vs 19%, p=0.37) did not differ between groups. Two patients experienced serious adverse events within 6 or less hours after plasma transfusion. Conclusion: Immediate addition of CP therapy in early stages of COVID-19 -compared to its use only in case of patient deterioration- did not confer benefits in mortality, length of hospitalization or mechanical ventilation requirement.


Convalescent plasma (plasma with SARS-Cov-2 antibodies from recovered patients) was not found to be a cure for the infection.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 09/21/20 07:49am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

So much time and effort expended on this drug!

Mortality outcomes with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine in COVID-19: an international collaborative meta-analysis of randomized trials
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194571

Quote:

Abstract

Background: Substantial COVID-19 research investment has been allocated to randomized clinical trials (RCTs) on hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine, which currently face recruitment challenges or early discontinuation. We aimed to estimate the effects of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine on survival in COVID-19 from all currently available RCT evidence, published and unpublished. Methods: Rapid meta-analysis of ongoing, completed, or discontinued RCTs on hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment for any COVID-19 patients (protocol: https://osf.io/QESV4/). We systematically identified published and unpublished RCTs by September 14, 2020 (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, PubMed, Cochrane COVID-19 registry). All-cause mortality was extracted (publications/preprints) or requested from investigators and combined in random-effects meta-analyses, calculating odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), separately for hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine. Prespecified subgroup analyses included patient setting, diagnostic confirmation, control type, and publication status. Results: Sixty-two trials were potentially eligible. We included 16 unpublished trials (1596 patients) and 10 publications/preprints (6317 patients). The combined summary OR on all-cause mortality for hydroxychloroquine was 1.08 (95%CI: 0.99, 1.18; I-square=0%; 24 trials; 7659 patients) and for chloroquine 1.77 (95%CI: 0.15, 21.13, I-square=0%; 4 trials; 307 patients). We identified no subgroup effects. Conclusions: We found no benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine on the survival of COVID-19 patients. For hydroxychloroquine, the confidence interval is compatible with increased mortality (OR 1.18) or negligibly reduced mortality (OR 0.99). Findings have unclear generalizability to outpatients, children, pregnant women, and people with comorbidities.


Summary:
16 unpublished trials (1596 patients) and 10 publications/preprints (6317 patients)

no benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine on the survival of COVID-19 patients

For hydroxychloroquine, the confidence interval is compatible with increased mortality (OR 1.18) or negligibly reduced mortality (OR 0.99).

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