Boon Docker
Mountain Foothills of Southern Alberta
Senior Member
Joined: 10/30/2015
View Profile
|
It is really unfortunate that there is a small minority of people that don't believe that.
|
pianotuna
Regina, SK, Canada
Senior Member
Joined: 12/18/2004
View Profile
 Offline
|
Hi,
This doesn't raise my confidence about traveling in USA.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map
Regards, Don
My ride is a 28 foot Class C, 256 watts solar, 556 amp-hours of Telcom jars, 3000 watt Magnum hybrid inverter, Sola Basic Autoformer, Microair Easy Start.
|
Deb and Ed M
SW MI & Space Coast, FL USA
Senior Member
Joined: 06/07/2004
View Profile
|
I have been faithfully following covidactnow.org
(very similar to your link) for well over a year. I've decided that my future travels need to avoid areas where people are being forced indoors by either heat or cold; or to not travel after a major holiday. My example: Florida was a hotbed of Covid from mid-July through mid-Sept; while Michigan was relatively low. Now as it cools off and the Floridians head outdoors, their Covid numbers have fallen off while Michigan's are soaring to new highs. And everybody seems to have taken a jump upward in the last few days, due to Thanksgiving gatherings?
CovidActNow
|
BCSnob
Middletown, MD
Senior Member
Joined: 02/23/2002
View Profile
|
Here is the first preprint with data for Omicron
Reduced Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant by Vaccine Sera and monoclonal antibodies
MedRxiv Preprint 8 Dec 2021
The researchers (in Germany) tested serum samples (samples collected from previous studies) from several groups/cohorts on how well these serum samples neutralized live Delta and Omicon viruses (live virus neutralization test).
The cohorts evaluated:
2x BNT162b2 (Pfizer) doses
3x BNT162b2 (Pfizer) doses collected at 0.5 or 6 months after 3rd dose
2x mRNA1273 (Moderna) doses
2x mRNA1273 (Moderna) doses plus BNT162b2 (Pfizer) booster
1x ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) and 1x BNT162b2 (Pfizer)
Infected plus 2x BNT162b2 (Pfizer)
Within each cohort there were only 8 - 20 individual samples.
The authors also tested the efficacy of two antibody drugs (imdevimab and casirivimab) against the live Delta and Omicron viruses.
The authors compared the live virus neutralization of these serum samples and drugs against Delta and Omicron; they reported the relative loss in neutralization (protection).
Imdevimab and casirivimab were ineffective against Omicron.
2x BNT162b2 (Pfizer) doses was 11.4x poorer against Omicron than Delta.
3x BNT162b2 (Pfizer) doses collected at 0.5 or 6 months after 3rd dose were 37.0x (0.5month post 3rd dose) and 24.5x (6month post 3rd dose) poorer.
2x mRNA1273 (Moderna) doses was 20x poorer.
2x mRNA1273 (Moderna) doses plus BNT162b2 (Pfizer) booster was 22.7 poorer.
1x ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca) and 1x BNT162b2 (Pfizer) were poor against Delta and ineffective against Omicron.
Infected plus 2x BNT162b2 (Pfizer) was 32.8x poorer against Omicron than Delta.
These relative changes (Omicron vs Delta) don't tell the whole story. When I reviewed their raw data I found that only two of these cohorts had at least 1/2 of the samples showing efficacy against Omicron: 2xBNT162b2 plus BNT162b2(0.5months) & 2xmRNA1273 plus BNT162b2.
The authors point out that while the serum samples (antibodies circulating at the time of sampling) were not that effective against Omicron; the human immune system also has memory cells that will start producing antibodies when needed.
Quote:In contrast to the currently circulating Delta variant, neutralization efficacy of vaccine-elicited sera against Omicron was severely reduced highlighting T-cell mediated immunity as essential barrier to prevent severe COVID-19. Since Omicron was resistant to casirivimab and imdevimab SARS-CoV-2 genotyping may be needed before initiating mAb treatment.
You should also note that this study had only a few samples within each cohort, did not include all vaccine combinations, or convalescent serum alone (only "natural immunity" from a previous variant).
|
Deb and Ed M
SW MI & Space Coast, FL USA
Senior Member
Joined: 06/07/2004
View Profile
|
Thanks, Mark! Granted, it's a small study, but this is a bit "darker" than the sunny outlook being passed around on the news at the moment: "Omicron doesn't make you as sick as Delta" If the monoclonal treatments are ineffective, that WILL make a difference in how sick people get.
Personally, with a variant that seems especially contagious, occurring right before the Holidays - well, I'm keeping my masks handy.
|
|
|
BCSnob
Middletown, MD
Senior Member
Joined: 02/23/2002
View Profile
|
I saw a smaller live virus neutralization study out of SouthAfrica comparing 2x Pfizer or infection plus 2x Pfizer serum for neutralizing the original variant and omicron; the study found a ~40x loss in efficacy (larger losses comparing omicron to the original variant than to delta). Infection plus 2x Pfizer was more effective than just 2x Pfizer, but both saw loss of effectiveness against omicron.
Link
I saw another that reported from a region in South Africa where delta infected enough of the population that the authors surmised “herd immunity” but now omicron is causing infections with rates doubling every 3-4 days.
Link
I have not seen scientific studies on the severity of the infection from omicron.
* This post was
edited 12/10/21 06:36pm by BCSnob *
|
BCSnob
Middletown, MD
Senior Member
Joined: 02/23/2002
View Profile
|
This preprint has an extensive summary of vaccination and natural immunity protection against infection. The data comes from the Czech Republic of 7,428,968 valid records of vaccinated and/or SARS-CoV-2 positive persons.
Real-life protection provided by vaccination, booster doses and previous infection against covid-19 infection, hospitalisation or death over time in the Czech Republic: a whole country retrospective view
MedRxiv Preprint 12 Dec 2021
Quote:The covid-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic started with the first three cases reported on March 1, 2020 and was initially fueled by Czech citizens returning from the alpine ski resorts of Italy and Austria. Since then the country saw five waves of covid-19 spread. As of November 20, 2021, 1,996,080 individuals were infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus, of which 12,894 (0.65%) were reinfected.
From these data the authors calculated vaccine effectiveness for several vaccines:
2x doses of Pfizer
2x doses of Moderna
2x Doses of AstraZeneca
1x Dose of Janssen/J&J
Pfizer booster with any of the above vaccines
Moderna booster with any of the above vaccines
And they calculated the protection afforded by a previous infection.
Effectiveness was calculated for several time frames after completion of the first vaccination, after a booster, and after infection.
Calculated vaccine effectiveness vs time
Pfizer: 87% (0-2months), 53% (7-8months)
Moderna: 90% (0-2months), 65% (7-8months)
AstraZeneca: 83% (0-2months), 55% (7-8months)
Janssen/J&J: ~68% (0-2months), ~67% (7-8months) - not much data for this vaccine
Any vaccination plus booster (Pfizer or Moderna): 92% to 93% (0-2months)
The vaccines are based upon the Wuhan variant; other studies have shown lower protection against the newer variants even right after complete vaccination. During the time frame of this study the dominant variant changed from Wuhan to Alpha to Delta.
Previous infection provided protection against reinfection:
97% (2-4months), 91% (5-6months), 83% (11-12months), 72% (17-18months)
No information was provided on the variant that caused the original infection. An infection by Alpha or Delta would be expected to provide better protection against reinfection by Alpha or Delta than a previous infection by the Wuhan variant.
Quote:In summary, we used a comprehensive national population-based database containing individual level data about all detected SARS-CoV-2 infection cases to estimate many important characteristics of the post-vaccination and post-infection immunity in the population of the Czech Republic, covering all four vaccines currently approved in the EU and the protection from infection, hospital admission and death. The results strongly advocate for a timely and widespread administration of vaccine booster doses. Covid-19 will undoubtedly continue to disrupt everyday lives and cause suffering and loss of life around the globe and real-life vaccine effectiveness data such as the ones presented in this study can bring an important insight for policy makers in order to limit the worst impacts of the current pandemic.
|
BCSnob
Middletown, MD
Senior Member
Joined: 02/23/2002
View Profile
|
Reinfection rate was higher in this study from the USA (3.23%) than the study above (0.65%).
Incidence of COVID-19 reinfection: an analysis of outpatient-based data in the United States of America
MedRxiv Preprint 13 Dec 2021
Quote:The study revealed 3,778 reinfection cases of 116,932 COVID-19 infected cases (3.23%). Reinfection cases were more common in females (3.35%) than males (3.23%). Elderly subjects were the highest incidence (5.13%), followed by adult (4.14%), young adults (2.35%), and children (1.09%). Proportion in the region of living northeast was the highest (3.68%), compared to the south (3.49%), west (2.59%), and midwest (2.48%).
Mask usage, social distancing, vaccine mandates, etc can impact community transmission; according to the study from the Czech Republic they have restrictions in place which would limit community transmission.
Quote:The rate of vaccination was increasing until the beginning of June, 2021, stayed relatively low during summer months, and started to rise again in October 2021, in response to epidemic control measures requiring a proof of infection/vaccination/negative test in many public places (Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic, 2020). link
* This post was
edited 12/13/21 11:58am by BCSnob *
|
Deb and Ed M
SW MI & Space Coast, FL USA
Senior Member
Joined: 06/07/2004
View Profile
|
Quote:
Copied from the above:
The study revealed 3,778 reinfection cases of 116,932 COVID-19 infected cases (3.23%). Reinfection cases were more common in females (3.35%) than males (3.23%). Elderly subjects were the highest incidence (5.13%), followed by adult (4.14%), young adults (2.35%), and children (1.09%). Proportion in the region of living northeast was the highest (3.68%), compared to the south (3.49%), west (2.59%), and midwest (2.48%).
I'm going to take a guess that the reinfection rates are based on population density?? People who ride public transportation; live in large buildings; or walk on crowded sidewalks are probably more at risk of encountering the virus??
|
BCSnob
Middletown, MD
Senior Member
Joined: 02/23/2002
View Profile
|
I would guess reinfection rates are due to risk behaviors (bar hopping, going to crowded concerts, indoor parties, etc in locations where there is community transmission ) plus population density
|
|
|
|
