wing_zealot
East of the Mississippi
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kudos383 wrote:All the other comd's the usda and govt are involved in,they buy them have to keep them cool,etc.uncle sam is watching.Oil can be bought years in advance,never have to touch it or even see it,just every 30days resale it.But with Iraq now putting out oil,and more in the future,plus gov getting involved,I see oil takeing a big fall.
Your explaination of how the commodities markets works is clearly way out in left field. Nice guess, but totally off base. You are obviously clueless as to how commodities trading works. Don't try to explain something you clearly know nothing about.
Gee I own pork bellies, lots of them, but I sure don't have them in a refrigerator, actually, their still eating and pooping, and I don't even own the farm they are on, just the bellies. And the USDA doesn't do a thing, until your ready to butcher them for sale. Then all they do is test for contamination and inspect the belly, there is no watchdog.
Read and learn, then learn some more, then investigate it your self, then put your own money into it and learn the hard way, then maybe you will be qualified to post about how commodities trading works. It just irks me to no end when people profess something to be true (like oil speculators are driving up the price of oil) with no first hand knowledge. Then they back it up with some totally wrong BS that shows they know absolutely nothing about what they are talking about. Just repeating something they heard some where else and gee, it's just gotta be true, casue so and so said so. Get Outta Town!
* This post was
edited 06/04/08 06:22am by wing_zealot *
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Sea Dog
Ontario Can.
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Joined: 04/15/2001
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wing_zealot wrote:kudos383 wrote:All the other comd's the usda and govt are involved in,they buy them have to keep them cool,etc.uncle sam is watching.Oil can be bought years in advance,never have to touch it or even see it,just every 30days resale it.But with Iraq now putting out oil,and more in the future,plus gov getting involved,I see oil takeing a big fall.
Your explaination of how the commodities markets works is clearly way out in left field. Nice guess, but totally off base. You are obviously clueless as to how commodities trading works. Don't try to explain something you clearly know nothing about.
Gee I own pork bellies, lots of them, but I sure don't have them in a refrigerator, actually, their still eating and pooping, and I don't even own the farm they are on, just the bellies. Get outta town.
Well this is what I thought.
I understood that no one actually takes delivery, no one wants a carload of beans or lumber dumped in their drive!
Life is short,Death is long,
Take a vacation.
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crudeman
Texas
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Geesh.. glad to see we have a new forum god here amongst us now!
Steve & Pat
Hannah - Sophie
2006 HR Ambassador PDQ
2010 Silverado
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wing_zealot
East of the Mississippi
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Sea Dog wrote:wing_zealot wrote:kudos383 wrote:All the other comd's the usda and govt are involved in,they buy them have to keep them cool,etc.uncle sam is watching.Oil can be bought years in advance,never have to touch it or even see it,just every 30days resale it.But with Iraq now putting out oil,and more in the future,plus gov getting involved,I see oil takeing a big fall.
Your explaination of how the commodities markets works is clearly way out in left field. Nice guess, but totally off base. You are obviously clueless as to how commodities trading works. Don't try to explain something you clearly know nothing about.
Gee I own pork bellies, lots of them, but I sure don't have them in a refrigerator, actually, their still eating and pooping, and I don't even own the farm they are on, just the bellies. Get outta town.
Well this is what I thought.
I understood that no one actually takes delivery, no one wants a carload of beans or lumber dumped in their drive!
There are many reasons for buying and selling commodities. Some are farmers that want to insure a good price for thier crop when they actually harvest it (next fall), some are food producers like General Mills that want to ensure a certain price for the grain they won't even be taking delivery of until next January. And everyone in between, who may be merely making a loan to a farmer and holding grain in return and hoping they get a decent return on their investment. If they are right, all is good, if they are wrong, they lost their money. But whatever, none of those players gets to set the price, they buy and sell at the going price and take their chances just like investing in stock. You have to have a willing buyer and a willing seller or there is no sale.
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eltejano1
Woodville, Texas
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Sam:
I have the same question as Sea Dog - namely, what is it about that particular commodity that makes it different from sugar, lumber or copper? Could it be that there realy are significant shortages of petroleum and dim prospects for more down the road?
Please explain, Sam.
Jack
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topflite51
In The Desert of Nevada
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eltejano1 wrote:Sam:
I have the same question as Sea Dog - namely, what is it about that particular commodity that makes it different from sugar, lumber or copper? Could it be that there realy are significant shortages of petroleum and dim prospects for more down the road?
Please explain, Sam.
Jack Perception, both real and imaginary.
">David
Just rolling along enjoying life
w/F53 Southwind towing a 87 Samurai or 01 Grand Vitara looking to fish
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Any errors are a result of CRS.">
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Hurricaner
Hurricane Utah
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Joined: 02/17/2007
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My comment was a poor attempt at sarcasm. No one fully understands what is going on with oil futures at this time. One thing is for sure and that is it's being driven by speculators, some trying to hedge against inflation and some are gamblers looking for a quick buck. The world cannot afford 100+ oil at this time and there is just too much of it too warrant the price.
As far as GM is concerned oil can go down to 75 bucks a barrel, which I believe it probably will, and it won't help them one bit. Gas will still be 3 bucks a gallon and people can't and should not drive large pickups and suvs. This is the only smart thing GM has done in 50 years.
Sam
Sam & Kari
Hurricane, Utah
2019 Winnebago Sightseer 33C
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kudos383
wva
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Joined: 08/13/2006
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wing_zealot wrote:kudos383 wrote:All the other comd's the usda and govt are involved in,they buy them have to keep them cool,etc.uncle sam is watching.Oil can be bought years in advance,never have to touch it or even see it,just every 30days resale it.But with Iraq now putting out oil,and more in the future,plus gov getting involved,I see oil takeing a big fall.
Your explaination of how the commodities markets works is clearly way out in left field. Nice guess, but totally off base. You are obviously clueless as to how commodities trading works. Don't try to explain something you clearly know nothing about.
Gee I own pork bellies, lots of them, but I sure don't have them in a refrigerator, actually, their still eating and pooping, and I don't even own the farm they are on, just the bellies. And the USDA doesn't do a thing, until your ready to butcher them for sale. Then all they do is test for contamination and inspect the belly, there is no watchdog.
Read and learn, then learn some more, then investigate it your self, then put your own money into it and learn the hard way, then maybe you will be qualified to post about how commodities trading works. It just irks me to no end when people profess something to be true (like oil speculators are driving up the price of oil) with no first hand knowledge. Then they back it up with some totally wrong BS that shows they know absolutely nothing about what they are talking about. Just repeating something they heard some where else and gee, it's just gotta be true, casue so and so said so. Get Outta Town! Do I have to go to the corner now?Maybe my comment was spect,lol.
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stevenicoldeactivate
Hillsboro, Oregon
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Joined: 01/27/2007
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Hurricaner wrote:My comment was a poor attempt at sarcasm. No one fully understands what is going on with oil futures at this time. One thing is for sure and that is it's being driven by speculators, some trying to hedge against inflation and some are gamblers looking for a quick buck.
Sam,
Since you're brave enough to lend your expertise to this forum, I'm going to make an assumption that you've completed your Series 6 and have a Broker Dealer License: right? Or maybe you're like me on permanent-vacation from the finance industry, but just can't keep your eyes, fingers, and ears out of it.
Anyway, I've had a lot of success with short-term investments (not trading, I never had to use a margin account) using RN Elliot's wave Principles to predict price movement. To make a long-story short, applying some watered-down Calculus for Elliot's Fibonacci jive, I've predicted that the price of Raw Crude will bottom out much higher than your prediction of $75/bbl. Or is this number your attempt at sarcasm that I shouldn't take too seriously? If so, sorry, I don't want to waste your time: I'm just a curious geek.
So, is this an arbitrary number that you pulled out of the air, or do you know something..?
Also, like the technology boom of the late 1990s, early 2000s, how much do you think the volume of oil futures traded daily has to do with the upward price movement? If volume decreases, when traders and short-term investors tire of the commodities market, perhaps the market will slide like the technology market has?
Thanks for your knowledge,
Steve
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wing_zealot
East of the Mississippi
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Can some one tell me what a "Speculator" is? Is that someone that buys stock hoping it will go up? If so, then I guess that makes pretty much anyone that can afford an RV a speculator.
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