BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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For those thinking and/or posting “the cart before the horse” comments about the lack of grid resilience & power generation capacity for EVs; I have a follow up question.
Will the entities responsible for the grid/power generation build in more capacity if there isn’t increased demand from EVs (or other power consumers) or a government mandate?
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way2roll
Wilmington NC
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BCSnob wrote:For those thinking and/or posting “the cart before the horse” comments about the lack of grid resilience & power generation capacity for EVs; I have a follow up question.
Will the entities responsible for the grid/power generation build in more capacity if there isn’t increased demand from EVs (or other power consumers) or a government mandate?
If EV's were to stop in their tracks today (they won't but I'll play along) we're already behind in terms of capacity for current and proposed usage. Since the existing power grid is already taxed, some states requesting lower usage, charging times at night, rolling blackouts in extreme weather, etc, I would say that day has already passed. There is already increased demand greater than the system can sustain - or at least at max capacity. Demand is here and it's just going to get greater. Never mind the time it would take to catch up - forget getting ahead of forecasted EV sales. In short, it's too late. EV's can be produced at an exponentially faster rate than the power infrastructure can catch up, let alone get ahead of it.
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shelbyfv
TN
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BCSnob wrote:For those thinking and/or posting “the cart before the horse” comments about the lack of grid resilience & power generation capacity for EVs; I have a follow up question.
Will the entities responsible for the grid/power generation build in more capacity if there isn’t increased demand from EVs (or other power consumers) or a government mandate? You can Google for the various estimates but most show between 6% and 8% additional grid capacity needed over the next 20 years, using optimistic estimates of EV adoption. EVs are primarily charged at night, so don't contribute much to the "peak" problems we see. Nevertheless, like most infrastructure, the power grid needs upgrading, EVs or not.
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thomas201
Eastern Panhandle WV
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Some areas, like NE PA, are winter peak, usually on a cold NIGHT, not summer peak. I imagine the entire northern half of the US is this way.
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way2roll
Wilmington NC
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shelbyfv wrote:BCSnob wrote:For those thinking and/or posting “the cart before the horse” comments about the lack of grid resilience & power generation capacity for EVs; I have a follow up question.
Will the entities responsible for the grid/power generation build in more capacity if there isn’t increased demand from EVs (or other power consumers) or a government mandate? You can Google for the various estimates but most show between 6% and 8% additional grid capacity needed over the next 20 years, using optimistic estimates of EV adoption. EVs are primarily charged at night, so don't contribute much to the "peak" problems we see in the summer. Nevertheless, like most infrastructure, the power grid needs upgrading, EVs or not.
Agreed. I meant to say before I posted that EV's aren't the bad guy here in terms of power consumption. Climate/temperature swings paired with energy inefficient housing is probably the greatest impact. More people, more devices etc. EV's are just icing - or perhaps victim of timing. That said, charging at night for EV's might be true today as it's still a rather niche market. But as they become more common won't more charging occur in peak hours, like folks travelling, charging while at work during the day, etc?
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Huntindog
Phoenix AZ
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propchef wrote:Huntindog wrote:propchef wrote:time2roll wrote:Huntindog wrote:A few days ago the Wall Street Journal had an article about what it presently takes for renewables to supply power 24/7.
Apparently it has been done on a small scale in several locations. The common theme was that it takes 3 times the capacity of a conventional power plant AND an incredible amount of batteries to achieve the level of reliability we are used to. They flat out concluded that it cannot be done with todays technology.. It would take too much real estate and cost way too much.
So we are going headlong down a road that presently has a bad ending.
Will a better way be developed?..... Maybe and maybe not. One thing is certain. Companies will only continue down this road if makes financial sense. Presently Governments are providing enough incentives to make it so. But even they cannot afford to do this at the level it will take to be green. One thing is certain. Buisinesses will not shoulder the cost alone, as long as they know it is not the ultimate solution. As they would be loath to pay for all the stranded costs of a failed experiment IF a better way forward is found. I assume there is an agenda or bias within the reporting.
Post the article at length so we can have real comments.
It wasn't a factual, in-depth article, it was on the "Opinions" page.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicle-ev-power-grid-electricity-shortage-11652302212
BYW, this article is subscription/password based, but it's someone's opinion, same as anyone posting here. That is not the right article.
The one I was talking about did not even mention EVs.
Nor did I in my post
Fair enough, but to avoid this it helps to actually post or quote the article. We have to guess. I imagine the article you're referencing is also someone's opinion. I did not take it as an opinion piece. It was not in the opinion section, and they quoted sources and used specific projects in different countries and businesses. I had a thought that I might be able to find it on my digital WSJ app. I was not. The oldest it shows is Jan.5
so I cannot PROVE it to everyones satisfaction.... But I think that any level headed person can see that it makes sense.
The green proponents cannot deny the issue. They always state the solution will be found. All we need to to do is go all in.
That is a BIG,BIG bet.
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shelbyfv
TN
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thomas201 wrote:Some areas, like NE PA, are winter peak, usually on a cold NIGHT, not summer peak. I imagine the entire northern half of the US is this way. Good point and we recently had a grid issue here in TN during cold weather. As with the debacle in TX awhile back, it was caused by mismanagement rather than lack of capacity. Still, regardless of season, we are looking at under 10% increase needed just for EVs and that's over 20 years.
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map40
Florida
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Joined: 01/15/2005
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Huntindog wrote:propchef wrote:Huntindog wrote:propchef wrote:time2roll wrote:Huntindog wrote:A few days ago the Wall Street Journal had an article about what it presently takes for renewables to supply power 24/7.
Apparently it has been done on a small scale in several locations. The common theme was that it takes 3 times the capacity of a conventional power plant AND an incredible amount of batteries to achieve the level of reliability we are used to. They flat out concluded that it cannot be done with todays technology.. It would take too much real estate and cost way too much.
So we are going headlong down a road that presently has a bad ending.
Will a better way be developed?..... Maybe and maybe not. One thing is certain. Companies will only continue down this road if makes financial sense. Presently Governments are providing enough incentives to make it so. But even they cannot afford to do this at the level it will take to be green. One thing is certain. Buisinesses will not shoulder the cost alone, as long as they know it is not the ultimate solution. As they would be loath to pay for all the stranded costs of a failed experiment IF a better way forward is found. I assume there is an agenda or bias within the reporting.
Post the article at length so we can have real comments.
It wasn't a factual, in-depth article, it was on the "Opinions" page.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicle-ev-power-grid-electricity-shortage-11652302212
BYW, this article is subscription/password based, but it's someone's opinion, same as anyone posting here. That is not the right article.
The one I was talking about did not even mention EVs.
Nor did I in my post
Fair enough, but to avoid this it helps to actually post or quote the article. We have to guess. I imagine the article you're referencing is also someone's opinion. I did not take it as an opinion piece. It was not in the opinion section, and they quoted sources and used specific projects in different countries and businesses. I had a thought that I might be able to find it on my digital WSJ app. I was not. The oldest it shows is Jan.5
so I cannot PROVE it to everyones satisfaction.... But I think that any level headed person can see that it makes sense.
The green proponents cannot deny the issue. They always state the solution will be found. All we need to to do is go all in.
That is a BIG,BIG bet.
If you don't mind my opinion, the articule is a conclusion, based on an assumption on what it will happen if a certain set of conditions remain the same. And you hit the nail in the head, companies won't do something that will be detrimental for them. Technology will progress and we will continue down the path untill we get to a road block and there we will stop. I believe distributions is a bigger problem than generation. Increasing charging capacity to feed increasing battery capacity in vehicles will demand redirection of power suppy to more populated areas and highways in much higher volume than currently used. Installing a 250kw charger (single one) is $150K. A 500kw or more charger requires cable active cooling and 800 to 1000V, so I would say at least $300K each.
Once you reach these type of problems this is beyond green proponents, you reach regular people that will simply judge investment on cost and convenience, basically ROI.
And if we were to install these superchargers, there is no way to get power to them.
So at the end of the day, the article is based on assumptions and it is, at the end, the opinion of the writer. I don't agree with him, I believe we will have other problems sooner than that that will slow the grouth of EVs.
But then again, that is just my opinion...
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pianotuna
Regina, SK, Canada
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map40,
A regular gas station costs between 250k and 2 million.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, 80 percent of EV charging happens at home. That may most often be level 2 charging which doesn't require any upgrades to the existing grid.
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/ev-........w-light-on-how-people-charge-evs-at-home
As of summer 2022, Tesla had more than 1,400 Supercharger stations in the United States, with a total of more than 7,000 chargers.
As a retired person, aged 74, my vehicle use is quite low--a level one charger would more than meet my needs. I'd probably charge to only 85% to extend the cycle life. Likely I'd spend more energy on battery heating than on actual travel--that is until a Lithium Titinate chemistry is an option.
The economics of my own situation most probably will preclude getting an EV. I have a 2013 Hyundai Elantra with just 76000 kilometres with a motor where the "top" was rebuilt 5000 kilometres ago. I will drive it into the ground. Or it may be above ground longer than me.
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Regards, Don
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BCSnob
Middletown, MD
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In other words “the cart before the horse” (in terms of power generation) is a false argument against adoption of EVs because increasing power generation requires there be incentives for the power companies.
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